more cell phones than landlines in the US

Wireless subscriptions could pass wireline soon, but some carriers are wary of marking the event. Very few people I know have landline phones, I live with four other young professionals, we all use cell phones. I wonder what the ratios are like for other countries?

Wireless Landmark Looms
By Mark Rockwell
July 1, 2005
Wireless Week

WASHINGTON–Carriers are carefully considering whether to mark an important milestone with great fanfare or a quiet nod.

For the first time, the telecom industry is anticipating official word that the number of wireless subscribers has surpassed the number of wireline phone subscribers. The FCC was set to release its twice-yearly local competition report in late June. The report may, or may not, show that wireless phone subscribers outnumber wireline subscribers. Wireline and wireless carriers are anticipating that moment has either already occurred, or will occur this year.

The landmark moment would seem to be a great thing for wireless carriers that can point to the success of flourishing, relatively unregulated wireless competition as the reason for the technology's success. That would be only half the story, however.

Wireless carriers affiliated with former local Bell wireline operating companies may have to walk a fine line in their praise, as trumpeting wireless' success too much could draw more regulatory attention. Too little trumpeting could come at the expense of wireline parents that want to use the relatively unregulated success of wireless as a model for their industry. The rhetorical line is a hard one to walk for those carriers.

At former Bell company BellSouth, officials in North Carolina extrapolated numbers in the FCC's December 2004 local competition report that show the number of wireline subscribers and the number of wireless subscribers will converge in the state at 5.2 million a piece this month or thereabouts. Over the next 10 years, wireless subscribers will climb to 6.5 million in the state, while wireline subscribers are projected to drop to 3.7 million there, according to BellSouth's charts.

Although the comparison isn't really an accurate tool to show wireless communications' ascendancy over wireline, as there are many differing factors in the numbers, it is an important psychological milestone for an industry increasingly looking to head off regulation. Measuring one against the other doesn't mean one technology has overtaken the other, as there are too many variables, such as the number of people who have two wireless phones, as well as several wireline connections, and people who have dropped wireline completely.

Officials at Cingular Wireless, whose parents include BellSouth and SBC Communications, had no comment on the predictions. A spokesman for "pure wireless play" carrier Nextel Communications applauded the possibility of wireless subscriptions overtaking wireline but declined further comment until after the FCC releases the official numbers.

Analysts for months have been predicting wireless subscriptions would pass wireless. Estimates from Bear, Stearns & Co. show wireless lines already surpassed local lines in 2004.

The trend of wireless replacing wireline "underscores the success of a light regulatory touch," says Jeffrey Nelson, spokesman for Verizon Wireless. "It underscores the need for a continued light touch on taxation and regulation" for wireless services.

Privately, officials at wireless carriers with local wireline parents say they fear making too much noise about the landmark because state regulators may use it to show wireless service needs more oversight because it is more common than wireline.

Other observers say wireline companies are looking to leverage the success of wireless into lighter regulations for themselves.

Either way, the milestone isn't a clearly drawn line for either wireline or wireless as convergence descends upon the industries.