Monday, July 16, 2007

Oil may hit $95 a barrel

Good news for the Oil sector and their investors! bad news for everybody else.

U.S. oil may hit $95 if OPEC does not hike output: Goldman Consumption; Demand; PricesNEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. crude price could top $90 a barrel this autumn and hit $95 by the end of the year if OPEC keeps oil production capped at current levels, Goldman Sachs said in a report issued on Monday.

U.S. oil prices have risen to near $74 per barrel, driven this month by higher demand and lower supplies, the report said, pointed out that such fundamentals could tighten further unless key OPEC members hike output.

"We believe an increase in Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti and UAE (United Arab Emirate) production by the end of the summer is critical to avoid prices spiking above $90 a barrel this autumn," the report stated.

OPEC agreed last year to lower output by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), and Goldman said global oil production is down about 1 million bpd from last summer's levels.

Disappointing output growth from non-OPEC producers also helped tighten supplies, Goldman said, adding global demand was up by 1 million bpd from year-ago levels.

"Our estimates show that keeping OPEC production at current levels and assuming normal weather this coming winter, total petroleum inventories would fall by over 150 million barrels or 6.5 percent by the end of the year, which would push prices to $95 a barrel without a demand response," the report forecast.

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